PMK, DMK split will have national implications
Venkatesha Babu -
Wednesday, June 18, 2008 8:35 AM
Two dravidan parties slugging it out for local (not even regional supremacy), having national implications ? Sounds bit contrived. But let me explain. In a petulant mood DMK which leads the ruling coalition in Tamil Nadu yesterday announced that it has severed ties with its ally PMK for 'humiliating it.' Even if PMK were to withdraw its 18 member support in the 234 member Tamil Nadu assembly, (DMK has 90 members and is 28 short of majority), the support of the 34 Congress members will ensure the government's survival. PMK is primarily a caste based party of the OBC Vanniyars and draws its support in the Vanniyar dominated districts in Northern Tamil Nadu.
Ramadoss the PMK supremo was playing the role of what the left parties do at the centre. Enjoy the fruits of power while continously criticising the ruling coalition. Fed up with the constant carping and PMK's ambition to expand into what DMK considers its traditional turf, Karunanidhi finally has opted for divorce.
PMK will not be in a hurry to reciprocate and get out of the UPA. PMK has two ministers at centre including the union health minister Anubumani son of the PMK supermo (he of the ban smoking on cinema screens, interfere in AIIMS fame) and it would not like to jeopardize that with central elections still a year away.
So there will be uneasy peace and AIADMK's Jayalalitha will be carefully watching and making overtures to the PMK. Way TN goes is crucial because the NDA was last time KO ed in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections losing all the 39 seats in the state. Any realisitic chance of it making to the centre would mean that its potential ally AIADMK stitches up a coalition of parties which will counter the DMK led coalition.
TN politics is in for some interesting times because 85 year old Karunanidhi is trying to anoint his son M K Stalin (imagine being named after the despicable despot responsible for the deaths of millions of his countrymen) as his heir apparent. This has not gone down well with other claimants for Karuna's mantle like his elder son M K Azhagiri or his increasingly ambitious daughter Kanimozhi.
AIADMK is having its own share of troubles with DMDK led by actor Vijaykanth laying claim to MGR's (AIADMK's founder) legacy. Branding himself as 'Karapu MGR' (Black MGR) Vijaykanth might be successful in playing the role of spoiler as he did in the last election. This even as MDMK's Vaiko, a powerful orator and once a confidant of Karunanidhi, but now in the NDA waits in the wings and watches. It would only take the entry of Rajanikanth (which is unlikely) to make the political mix even more potent.
Along with Andhra, TN is the other state where UPA and its allies (which won 75 of the 81 seats in these two states) will have to retain, if they want another shot at ruling from Delhi. NDA meanwhile knows PMK's departure from its DMK embrace bodes well for it, but might have to play its cards well to really encash this at a national level.